Thursday, March 08, 2007
BIG DADDY's PRESIDENTIAL ODDS, Vol. 2
Here's my second installment of this series looking at the frontrunners for their party's presidential nominations. Most of the names are the same but I've adjusted the odds a bit.
THE DEMS: "A Top Heavy Field -- No Pun Intended, Ms. Clinton"
Hillary Clinton: 3-1 (Much has changed in the past 6 weeks since I last posted. The Clintons are scrambling to deal with an effective challenge from the left by Obama. But they are old pros and it'd be a mistake to count them out. She's still the favorite, but also is her own worst enemy.)
Barack Obama: 6-1 (Running a very solid campaign so far. Stealing a good amount of traditional Democratic money away from Hillary, while clinging to the (mis)perception of being an outsider. I still think he ends up as the veep choice, but he's definitely got a shot.)
John Edwards: 10-1 (Getting drowned in the wake of the Clinton/Obama duel. But I think he remains in the mix. His best bet is to do plenty of old-fashioned grunt work by pounding the flesh and kissing babies. I'm not sure it'll work beyond Iowa and New Hampshire anymore, but since Clinton and Obama will be tied up in Washington for much of the year, it's his best chance.)
Al Gore: 25-1 (Of all things, the Oscars made him relevant again. But the momentum is slowly dying and it looks like Gore will stick to making movies and running up the electric bills!)
Bill Richardson: 100-1 (Not getting much press. And at this point it's hard for a sitting governor from New Mexico to do much decent campaigning in New Hampshire.)
Joe Biden: 250-1 (Only a big implosion at the top of the field and a bigger explosion in Iraq gives him a chance.)
Dennis Kucinich: 500-1 (Anyone know when the last time a sitting member of the House of Representatives was elected president? I don't but it makes a good trivia question, assuming it has even previosly happened. That said, this lefty won't be breaking the trend.)
Out: Tom Vilsack.
THE GOP: "Parity Is Not Necessarily A Good Thing"
John McCain: 4-1 (In terms of losing his status as media darling, Iraq is hurting him almost as much as it has Bush. But I still think the primogeniture theory will work for this former GOP star. The Straight-Talk Express of 2000 has derailed, but this time he'll have much of the party machinery and establishment behind him. That helps, even for an old campaign reformer!)
Rudy Giuliani: 5-1 (Barring any drastic changes, it looks like I was wrong about Rudy not running. He sure is acting like it and appears confident he can overcome many self-inflicted obstacles such as his social liberalism and family turmoil. Look for him to lead the pack for the near future. However, I think this campaign may peak too early a la Dean in 2004.)
Mitt Romney: 10-1 (Did well at the recent CPAC conference in that he delivered a good speech and packed the crowd with supporters. He'll have a tough time explaining how he ran to the left of Teddy Kennedy back in 1994 but his good personality does give him a fighting chance.)
Newt Gingrich: 20-1 (Still don't see him running. With 23 potential primaries on a new Super Tuesday in early February 2008, you can't get into the race as late as Fall 2007 which Newt has hinted at. He'll keep the possibility alive because the GOP field is weak and it helps sell books.)
Sam Brownback: 30-1 (Just not generating much momentum yet. I'd love to see him grab headlines by directly challenging new-frontrunner Giuliani on social issues. He's got the credibility with the base to do it; let's see if he has the backbone or the charisma.)
Mike Huckabee: 75-1 (Ditto above.)
Tom Tancredo: 100-1 (Dropped Gilmore from my top 7 since he's gotten no press. Tancredo has a loyal fanbase and will continue to stay relevant with his tough stance on illegal immigration.)
Out: George Pataki.
THE DEMS: "A Top Heavy Field -- No Pun Intended, Ms. Clinton"
Hillary Clinton: 3-1 (Much has changed in the past 6 weeks since I last posted. The Clintons are scrambling to deal with an effective challenge from the left by Obama. But they are old pros and it'd be a mistake to count them out. She's still the favorite, but also is her own worst enemy.)
Barack Obama: 6-1 (Running a very solid campaign so far. Stealing a good amount of traditional Democratic money away from Hillary, while clinging to the (mis)perception of being an outsider. I still think he ends up as the veep choice, but he's definitely got a shot.)
John Edwards: 10-1 (Getting drowned in the wake of the Clinton/Obama duel. But I think he remains in the mix. His best bet is to do plenty of old-fashioned grunt work by pounding the flesh and kissing babies. I'm not sure it'll work beyond Iowa and New Hampshire anymore, but since Clinton and Obama will be tied up in Washington for much of the year, it's his best chance.)
Al Gore: 25-1 (Of all things, the Oscars made him relevant again. But the momentum is slowly dying and it looks like Gore will stick to making movies and running up the electric bills!)
Bill Richardson: 100-1 (Not getting much press. And at this point it's hard for a sitting governor from New Mexico to do much decent campaigning in New Hampshire.)
Joe Biden: 250-1 (Only a big implosion at the top of the field and a bigger explosion in Iraq gives him a chance.)
Dennis Kucinich: 500-1 (Anyone know when the last time a sitting member of the House of Representatives was elected president? I don't but it makes a good trivia question, assuming it has even previosly happened. That said, this lefty won't be breaking the trend.)
Out: Tom Vilsack.
THE GOP: "Parity Is Not Necessarily A Good Thing"
John McCain: 4-1 (In terms of losing his status as media darling, Iraq is hurting him almost as much as it has Bush. But I still think the primogeniture theory will work for this former GOP star. The Straight-Talk Express of 2000 has derailed, but this time he'll have much of the party machinery and establishment behind him. That helps, even for an old campaign reformer!)
Rudy Giuliani: 5-1 (Barring any drastic changes, it looks like I was wrong about Rudy not running. He sure is acting like it and appears confident he can overcome many self-inflicted obstacles such as his social liberalism and family turmoil. Look for him to lead the pack for the near future. However, I think this campaign may peak too early a la Dean in 2004.)
Mitt Romney: 10-1 (Did well at the recent CPAC conference in that he delivered a good speech and packed the crowd with supporters. He'll have a tough time explaining how he ran to the left of Teddy Kennedy back in 1994 but his good personality does give him a fighting chance.)
Newt Gingrich: 20-1 (Still don't see him running. With 23 potential primaries on a new Super Tuesday in early February 2008, you can't get into the race as late as Fall 2007 which Newt has hinted at. He'll keep the possibility alive because the GOP field is weak and it helps sell books.)
Sam Brownback: 30-1 (Just not generating much momentum yet. I'd love to see him grab headlines by directly challenging new-frontrunner Giuliani on social issues. He's got the credibility with the base to do it; let's see if he has the backbone or the charisma.)
Mike Huckabee: 75-1 (Ditto above.)
Tom Tancredo: 100-1 (Dropped Gilmore from my top 7 since he's gotten no press. Tancredo has a loyal fanbase and will continue to stay relevant with his tough stance on illegal immigration.)
Out: George Pataki.
# posted by Jeff Briscoe : 10:46 AM
