Thursday, February 01, 2007
The Rise of the Democrats
An interesting poll was released by Gallup earlier this week. It reveals just how much the Republican tide has seemingly now receeded. Is it merely a temporary end? Perhaps. Only time and the election of 2008 will tell. But I was genuinely surprised to see that, according to the poll, Republicans now outnumber Democrats in only 6 (mostly small) states -- TX, UT, SC, NE, WY, ID. Even Georgia is now labeled as "comparable" which means it may be in play for 2008, but I doubt it.
I realize that not everyone around here defers to poll results as much as I do. And I get that. But I would note that these polls were dead-on accurate as recently as the election of 2006. On the other hand, Karl Rove's self-proclaimed "own math" hasn't been seen lately, even at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue!
Anyway, here's the story. The link is above.
An average of all national Gallup polling in 2006, consisting of interviews with more than 30,000 adult Americans, finds 34% of Americans identifying as Democrats, 30% as Republicans, and 34% as independents. The parties had been relatively even in terms of national strength since 2001. The most recent figures represent the largest Democratic advantage since the Clinton presidency.
The increasing Democratic advantage is mainly due to declining Republican identification, rather than increasing Democratic identification. From 2004-2006, Republican identification declined from 34% to 30%, while Democratic identification increased by less than a percentage point (33.6% to 34.3%). During the last three years, the percentage of Americans identifying as independents increased from 31% to 34%.
The Democrats' advantage expands when taking into account the "leanings" of independents. In 2006, 50% of Americans identified as Democrats or were independents who said they leaned toward the Democratic Party. 40% identified as Republicans or leaned to the Republican Party. That 10-point advantage more than doubled the Democrats' 4-point advantage in 2005, and is the largest gap Gallup has measured in any year for either party since it regularly began tracking leaned party identification in 1991. This is the first time since 1991 that a party's support reached the 50% level.
I realize that not everyone around here defers to poll results as much as I do. And I get that. But I would note that these polls were dead-on accurate as recently as the election of 2006. On the other hand, Karl Rove's self-proclaimed "own math" hasn't been seen lately, even at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue!
Anyway, here's the story. The link is above.
An average of all national Gallup polling in 2006, consisting of interviews with more than 30,000 adult Americans, finds 34% of Americans identifying as Democrats, 30% as Republicans, and 34% as independents. The parties had been relatively even in terms of national strength since 2001. The most recent figures represent the largest Democratic advantage since the Clinton presidency.
The increasing Democratic advantage is mainly due to declining Republican identification, rather than increasing Democratic identification. From 2004-2006, Republican identification declined from 34% to 30%, while Democratic identification increased by less than a percentage point (33.6% to 34.3%). During the last three years, the percentage of Americans identifying as independents increased from 31% to 34%.
The Democrats' advantage expands when taking into account the "leanings" of independents. In 2006, 50% of Americans identified as Democrats or were independents who said they leaned toward the Democratic Party. 40% identified as Republicans or leaned to the Republican Party. That 10-point advantage more than doubled the Democrats' 4-point advantage in 2005, and is the largest gap Gallup has measured in any year for either party since it regularly began tracking leaned party identification in 1991. This is the first time since 1991 that a party's support reached the 50% level.
# posted by Jeff Briscoe : 5:44 PM
