Monday, October 24, 2005
Condi for President
On Sunday, BBCNEWS online featured Condi's "triumphant return" to Alabama.
Whether or not Ms. Rice will run for President is not a new question. The same question is being asked of many political heavy-weights these days. Rice? McCaine? Clinton? Edwards? The political pundits have already started to forecast and speculate.
At this early date, I am loathe to even speculate about who would get the nod to represent their respective parties. I am even less inclined to speculate about who would win the general election.
What interests me is the potential for a Rice/Clinton matchup.
I wonder about the effect such a matchup would have on the political status-quo.
Both parties have fallen into an set pattern of representation based on poltical gerrymandering. This pattern seems to rely upon presumptions that would, it seems to me, be challenged by a Rice/Clinton matchup.
1) African Americans are overwhelmingly registered Democrat. This is a 50 year old standard that relies upon a "brand loyalty." Since the community is heavily influenced by faith-based organizations (Christian, Moslem, and Cultural-Elite), the affiliation with the Democratic Party is largely conditional. It is conditional upon a generalized perception that the Democrats are more supportive of the working poor than Republicans are. Right or wrong, this perception has kept African Americans in the Democratic camp.
2) Women's Rights organizations are singularly supportive of Democratic candidates. This support is often expressed in terms of abortion rights. However, their core values cut a much broader swath to include "singlehood" and other independence models.
3) Suburban and urban working women are split almost entirely along religious lines: Catholic and Evangelical Christians supporting Republican candidates and Jewish and ritualistic Protestants supporting Democrats. (These trends are evident in judgeship elections.)
So, I pose the question about what effect on this system a Rice/Clinton matchup would have. Assuming the both women were selected to run for President and their running-mates neither detracted from nor supported their candidacy, would there be a "sea-change" in the American political scene?
Whether or not Ms. Rice will run for President is not a new question. The same question is being asked of many political heavy-weights these days. Rice? McCaine? Clinton? Edwards? The political pundits have already started to forecast and speculate.
At this early date, I am loathe to even speculate about who would get the nod to represent their respective parties. I am even less inclined to speculate about who would win the general election.
What interests me is the potential for a Rice/Clinton matchup.
I wonder about the effect such a matchup would have on the political status-quo.
Both parties have fallen into an set pattern of representation based on poltical gerrymandering. This pattern seems to rely upon presumptions that would, it seems to me, be challenged by a Rice/Clinton matchup.
1) African Americans are overwhelmingly registered Democrat. This is a 50 year old standard that relies upon a "brand loyalty." Since the community is heavily influenced by faith-based organizations (Christian, Moslem, and Cultural-Elite), the affiliation with the Democratic Party is largely conditional. It is conditional upon a generalized perception that the Democrats are more supportive of the working poor than Republicans are. Right or wrong, this perception has kept African Americans in the Democratic camp.
2) Women's Rights organizations are singularly supportive of Democratic candidates. This support is often expressed in terms of abortion rights. However, their core values cut a much broader swath to include "singlehood" and other independence models.
3) Suburban and urban working women are split almost entirely along religious lines: Catholic and Evangelical Christians supporting Republican candidates and Jewish and ritualistic Protestants supporting Democrats. (These trends are evident in judgeship elections.)
So, I pose the question about what effect on this system a Rice/Clinton matchup would have. Assuming the both women were selected to run for President and their running-mates neither detracted from nor supported their candidacy, would there be a "sea-change" in the American political scene?
# posted by Gorgius Vegetius : 10:37 PM
