Tuesday, May 24, 2005

Senate Compromise, Winners and Losers

Rather than relegate my thoughts to the comments section of Paul’s post regarding the "compromise" reached by the 14 Senators late last night, I’ll stick them on the main page for all to see and mull over.

As my previous thoughts on the matter indicated, I took an instiutionalist point-of-view towards the entire issue finding fault with both sides and characterizing the whole controversy as not about political philosophy, judicial philosophy or governing principles, but rather about power and politics, pure and simple. That being said the natural question is; well Mouldfan, how did the institution of the Senate fair?

To be honest, I’m not sure that this compromise will do anything for the institution except perhaps delay the inevitable power struggle for another time and allow the Senate to move forward on other equally contentious issues like energy policy, transportation spending, and annual appropriations bills. The important thing is that this was essentially a political issue that was resolved, well politically, which in my mind explains much of Paul’s and I am assuming GipperClone’s concerns. I don’t think that the Senate becomes a "joke" as a result of this, but I’m not sold that it regains its stature as the "world’s greatest deliberative body" either. I think that time will tell what the true effects of this compromise will be. Is it better than the "nuclear/constitutional option," sure, how much better, I don’t know yet. That being said, I don’t really think that there are many "winners and losers" as a result, with the lone exceptions of Senators McCain and Frist respectively.

I agree with Paul with respect to naming Senator Frist as the biggest loser. For what ever reason Frist has hitched his wagon to the (for lack of a better phrase, not because I agree with its use, or should I say overuse) "religious conservatives" who were, of course, strongly in favor of the confirmation of all of President Bush’s nominees and opposed to the existence of the judicial filibuster. Simply put, Frist failed in his only objective which was to rid the Senate of the filibuster for judicial nominations. As a result, he appears to be weak and unable to carry the torch as the standard bearer for "conservative causes." Put another way, he may be, without a massive image adjustment over then next 2 years, "dead on arrival" with respect to the 2008 GOP Presidential nomination.

Of course, on the flip side of that coin you find Senator McCain, and it is here where I disagree most with Paul’s post. While I can understand Paul’s frustration with McCain for abandoning principle and forging a compromise with the "hated" Democrats, I’m not sure that a majority of people will see things that way. Again this goes back to my point that what I think Paul was looking for (and quite reasonably I might add) here was a principled solution to a disagreement about principles. The sad fact is that this was neither a debate about principles, nor one that resulted in a principled solution, which is exactly why McCain wins. Think about it, McCain gets to put himself before the people as the man who helped save the Senate from itself and as the consensus builder who will be able to do on a national level what President Bush has been unable to achieve, namely, unite the country not divide it. Are any of these claims true, well that depends on your point-of-view, but remember that elections are about the 20-25% who are undecided or "independent." McCain has some solid conservative credentials on things like abortion (he’s pro-life) gay marriage (he’s against it) and congressional spending (he’s probably the most adamantly anti-pork spending member of the Senate along with Tom Corburn), but he has been a bit wishy washy on some things, notably his support for campaign finance reforms, and now his compromise on judicial nominations. All in all though he might be the candidate that right now plays well in all parts of the country and that makes him, in my opinion, the front runner. I’m sure that Paul and GC will disagree, and they will have many good points to make against McCain, as there are many that can be made, but right now he’s going to be seen as the perceived victor and to the victor go the spoils. To continue the use of cliche’s, right now McCain’s in the driver’s seat, unless and until something or someone changes the equation.

In the end my score card looks like this, McCain 1 or maybe 2, Frist 0 or even -1, and the Senate as a whole, well its got to be 0 or maybe N/A as we shall see what happens in the next weeks as the Supreme Court term closes and we see how many, if any, of the Justices decide to retire.


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